How India could overcome the Covid-19 crisis
Posted on 16 May 2021; 03:45 PM IST. Last Updated 16 May 2021; 03:45 PM IST.Summary: This article explains how India could overcome the Covid-19 crisis.
India has performed a commendable job, in producing the indigenous “covaxin”, and “covishield” licensed by AstraZenca, to prevent covid-19 infection. The battle against covid-19, was won on the scientific front, but due to the huge population base, the country may have to fight few more battles to roll out the vaccine to the population.
India has a population of about 140 crores (or 1400 millions), as of 2021. Roughly 30% of the population is below 18 years of age, and this gives a population of 100 crores (or 1000 millions), who are above 18 years of age, and who should be vaccinated to curb the covid-19 disease. We could further discount 10% of the population, who are already vaccinated or at least received one dose of the vaccine. This leaves a net population of about 90 crores (or 900 million), who require vaccination.
The problem India could be facing, with respect to vaccinations, could be broken down into three sub problems.
i) a realistic (or viable) time frame
ii) scaling the vaccine production
ii) roll out of the vaccine to people
Time Frame for Vaccination
The current production rates of the vaccines are tiny, and the vaccine requirement, which India needs to cope up and recover from Covid-19 is about 30 crore (300 million) doses per month.
This implies that 90 crore (or 900 million) people can be vaccinated in 6 months, or by end of 2021. The calculation assumes that two doses of the vaccine are required per person, or a total of 180 crore (or 1800 million) doses are required to vaccinate the full population.
Scaling the Vaccine Production
Based on the various announcements made by the Government of India, we can assume that the Government can produce the following doses of the vaccines per month, by August 2021.
a) Covaxin [7.8 crores per month]
b) Covishield [10 crores per month]
“covaxin” is more popular, and as its demand in the country is very high, the production should be increased to 20 crore doses.
The requirement of 30 crore doses, described above can be mapped to the vaccine brands as:
covaxin = 20 crore doses per month
covishield = 10 crore doses per month
The most important factor is ofcourse the "TIME", and this requirement must be met by July 01, 2021.
The Government of India must rope in the private manufacturers to produce “covaxin” across all states of India. Bharat BioTech the inventor of “covaxin”, must concentrate more on licensing and quality control, in addition to production.
The Rollout of the Vaccine to People
India has about 400 cities, and the population in these cities is about 20 crores (or 200 million). Interestingly the smallest city has a population in excess of 100,000. So, almost all cities may be regarded as densely populated.
The covid-19 disease has the following characteristics:
a) older people are more susceptible
b) density of people in the region, increases susceptibility
All people in all Indian cities could be vaccinated in about 2 months time, if 30 crore doses of the vaccine are available per month.
For rural areas, which have lesser population densities, the roll out could be based on the following priority scheme.
i) persons engaged in jobs, which require travel outside of the village.
ii) service vendors, who reside within the village, but cater to floating population (example: tea/coffee shops)
iii) above 60 years of age
iv) above 45 years with co-morbidities
v) above 45 years
vi) above 30 years
vii) above 18 years
Students pose a peculiar problem, as their permanent residence could be a village, but could be studying in a larger city. Invariantly, they travel back and forth and contribute to the spread of covid-19, without even being aware of it.
For the purpose of the vaccination, all Universities, and registered private colleges, must consider their students as temporary residents of the city, in which the college or University is located.
The same theory applies to companies, which hire temporary workers, who are not permanent residents of the city.
Finally, villages themselves may be grouped into tiny clusters, for administrative ease of identifying, who work and operate within the cluster, and who travel outside of the cluster.
Conclusion
Covid-19 is a disease that cannot be fought using a piecemeal approach. India has to put up one BIG BATTLE, to get over this crisis. Hopefully, India will get over with this disease, and need not have to through another wave of this menace.
Remarks
Other vaccines in the pipeline like Sputnik, and Johnson & Johnson, could reduce stress on manufacturing the huge number of doses India requires to overcome the covid-19 crisis.